Much has been said about the many ways that the pandemic will alter culture, society and business. Covid-cuisine has normalised vegetarian meals. Men are growing their hair long. Women are eschewing bras and beauty therapies in favour of comfort. Online businesses are prospering, offline businesses are suffering and whilst all of these perspectives may well be true, they are also banal, casual and insignificant.
Focusing on these changes is akin to focusing on the noise the wind makes during a hurricane, obvious and ephemeral. Beneath the surface and between the tiles monumental, imperceptible changes are occurring that will wreak profound change upon society.
Little radicals: How homeschooling will radicalise kids
3% of school age kids in the United States are homeschooled (NCES). That number suddenly jumped to 100%, or approximately 60 million, in recent months. Many of those children are now being exposed to extreme conspiracy theories. Participants in the so-called “Great Awakening” and all of its componentry including vaccine hesitancy, mind control, 5G aversion, “Deep State” suspicion. According to research undertaken by Pew Research almost one third of Americans believe that Covid-19 was created by scientists and 25% believe that it was probably planned. Without teachers and peers to challenge this thinking many kids will come to inherit these beliefs from their parents. Quarantine may well have slowed the spread of the virus but it almost certainly expedited the spread of radical conspiracies.
Over time this is likely to lead to increasing distrust of systems, institutions and government. It will lend validity and legitimacy to fringe groups and it will excuse radical behaviour likely leading to new forms of conspiratorial-libertarianism and a diminution of electoral, judicial and legislative processes.
Drop in monthly active users: The Catholic Church’s impending drop in churchgoers
Religious services have been impacted around the world. Images of virtual hajj certainly caught people’s attention but it has not changed the fact that attendance of sermons have been at minimum curtailed and in many countries prohibited.
The Catholic Church will be impacted more than most. Millions of recently born children will not now be christened due to safety concerns. By the time things return to normal many parents will choose not to bother with ancient sacrament.
Similarly, the church holds sway over many millions of habitual mass goers. People in rural communities who are not particularly religious who go to mass not out of belief but out of habit and social pressure to be seen as upstanding.
Whilst some people will return to mass once the virus has abated, a majority will not, content in their new weekend habits and comfortable that the virus broke the spell of their social conditioning. The church may well see a catastrophic collapse in active members over the next decade. The degradation of the church's power over voting citizens and ergo, governments, will lead to a significant escalation in the number of lawsuits dealing with institutionalised clerical abuse and could well lead to a cessation of tax amnesties for religious orders, mass selling of church owned assets and redesigning of educational systems across Europe.
Casting a long shadow: The impact of domestic abuse on mental health
The lockdown has resulted in a precipitous global increase in reported incidents of domestic violence. In Spain the emergency number for domestic violence received 18% more calls in the first two weeks of lockdown than in the same period a month earlier. French police reported a nationwide spike of 30% in domestic violence. The U.K.’s largest domestic abuse charity, Refuge, reported a 700% increase in calls to its helpline in a single day. A separate U.K. helpline for perpetrators of domestic abuse seeking help to change their behaviour received 25% more calls after the start of the lockdown. In Russia, Director of Anna crisis center for domestic violence victims, said her organisation had received a 25% increase from the previous month, with the last week of March seeing the greatest volume.
These incidents of domestic violence and sexual abuse extend from children to partners to elderly dependents. Unable to leave, to move, to seek help. Constantly under the gaze of their abuser(s) often in small confined urban dwellings where it’s impossible to even make a phone call without everyone else hearing. It is the pandemic beneath the pandemic.
Fewer babies: How Covid-19 is lowering the birthrate
There was a widely held hypothesis, at the beginning of the quarantine, that the lockdown would lead to a new baby boom. Early indicators suggest that this has not been the case and there will, in fact, be a significant decline in birthrates in developed nations.
Research undertaken by the Brookings institute suggests that there will be up to 500,000 fewer children in the U.S. next year. That’s a decline of about 13%. They look at evidence taken from previous pandemics as well as severe storms and electricity blackouts. There are other considerations that also need to be considered. 1) Economic vulnerability faced by many right now will make couples less inclined to have kids. 2) Many couples have postponed weddings, thereby forestalling the likelihood of children in many cultures. 3) IVF produces more than 8 million babies every year but most IVF treatments have been postponed meaning that a significant number of babies will not be born and the possibility of those couples being successful in the future will diminish. 4) The pandemic has also increased friction between couples confined together. Reports from China suggest a surge in divorce filings in March and April as citizens emerged from quarantine and anecdotal evidence from divorce lawyers elsewhere echoes that. This too will have a long term impact on birth numbers as couples who may have had another child split up.
Covid-19 is reshaping our world but many of the changes won’t be visible for decades. Some will be subtle increments in habits and traditions and some will be profound transformations in philosophy, ideology and capacity. Tens of millions of people will be radicalised, retreat from institutionalised religion, suffer violent and sexual abuse and a similar number will not even be born as a result of this virus. These experiences will sketch indelible change into the fabric of tomorrow's life, generating a new normal in the process.